Nate Silver Says Harris' Polling Isn't Strong After He Corrects for it

Democratic Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris appears to be improving in the polls, but forecast guru and now Prediction Market enthusiast Nate Silver said this is bad for her, actually. 

Silver explained of his corrections, "This line went up out of nowhere. Kamala Harris is doing too well for my model’s priors. Historically, if we look at data going back to 1892, her numbers are too high. So I've corrected for it by reducing it a few points."

In a timely fashion, Trafalgar, Patriot Polling, and Rasmussen just released polls today that show Trump tied or ahead in every swing state, which Silver pointed to as proof of his corrections are justified.

Yes, this is a real tweet.

“Democrats appear to be wasting their time campaigning and talking to voters when they could simply find some D-leaning pollsters to flood the market and influence the aggregates. This should be deeply concerning for Harris supporters” specified Nate Silvers.

Presented with this data from Silver's model, a senior Harris campaign strategist acknowledged the urgency with me, with the condition of anonymity.

"With these new polls coming out today, we must figure something out quickly. Since Kamala's jump in support after the convention, debate, and Taylor Swift endorsement, we are running a real risk of becoming an exception to these clear historical trends, which is obviously not possible."

The strategist added, "We must acknowledge the data that proves getting too much support too quickly is bad. And our support is clearly fading as Trafalgar and Patriot Polling show. Democrats need to remember that slow and steady is where our focus needs to be." 

Carl Allen

Carl Allen is an analyst of sports and political data, and author of "The Polls Weren't Wrong." 

https://realcarlallen.substack.com/
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